More COEs for 2025 February to April, but the additional 1,299 certificates probably won’t lead to softer premiums in the coming COE bids
The quarterly COE quota for 2025 Feb to Apr will be 17,133 - which is 8.2 percent more than for the 2024 Nov to 2025 Jan period and 16.5 percent than for the 2024 Feb-Apr period a year ago.
However, the increases are more significant if we consider just the COEs for the car categories, which are Cat A, Cat B and Open Cat E (which is effectively a proxy category for Cat B - internal combustion engine cars above 1600cc or 130bhp, and fully battery-electric vehicles with more than 110kW of power output).
In this case, the respective boost in the quota for passenger cars is 10.2 percent compared to the previous quarter and almost 20 percent (19.6% to be exact) compared to the 2024 Feb-Apr quarter.
As for Category C (goods vehicles and buses), the new three-month/six-bid quota goes up by 10 percent, which means more wriggle room for businessmen and companies in the commercial and industrial sectors to augment or replace their fleet of workhorse vehicles.
Buyers and retailers in the motorcycle segment (Category D), however, will have the exact same number of COEs (3,105) to ride with in the new quota period as they did in the period prior.
As a whole, the additional 1,299 certificates of entitlement for this quarter include the first injection of “bonus” COEs from the 20,000 extra COEs that LTA (Land Transport Authority) announced on 29 October last year.
That announcement wasn’t specific about the timeframe, with LTA saying it will be over the next few years, which left motor traders and car buyers with more questions than answers.
These are mostly related to which COE categories will get how many extra COEs, and when, and whether the release schedule for the extra certificates will be fixed/known or variable/vague. Also unclear at this point is the breakdown between fresh injections (“new-new” COEs pumped into the pool) and identified guaranteed deregistrations (“cut-and-fill” from vehicles on five-year COEs which cannot be renewed and would be returned to the pool in due course).
Motorist asked several senior automotive executives in the Leng Kee motor belt for their thoughts on the increased COE quota for 2025 February to April.
A director managing a popular German marque said: “Well, it’s better than nothing, but it’ll never be enough. The next few bids will be fulfilling motorshow orders, and only after that is the true reflection of the market. Even if the premiums soften then, it will probably be marginal. The COE won’t crash.”
Another director, who handles a Korean make, said: “It will not move the needle on the premium. COE will continue to stay high, due to the orders collected from the motorshow. The possible lowering of COE could be from potential buyers staying on the sideline till the COE drops.”
A director who oversees a Swedish car dealership said: “I was hoping to see more clarity and transparency in the allocation of the COEs. But if the announcement didn’t come out before the next bidding, Cat B may hit $130k.”
The last word came from a chief executive at a stalwart Japanese brand who lamented: “It’s a little bit disappointing.”
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